Friday, May 29, 2009

LVS SECONDARY OFFERING COMING SOON

LVS will announce a secondary by the open or close Monday. Sheldon pulling out "logistical complications" is a clear indication that it will happen seeing how it would be in the firms (and his interest) for him to attend and pump up the financial "strength...more like weakness" of the firm. We see how strong LVS has been around $10 and we know how MGM was trading before it announced the offering (priced 40% below closing price that day) LVS has no other choice but to take such action since an IPO of their Macau assets will take too long (HK IPOs much longer lock up period than in U.S, also will only be able to sell 20-30% of stake, not enough capital prob up weak financials PLUS too long to bring to market!!!) and because they know you LVS lovers/traders will eat it up as if dilution is a good thing. Who cares that their new casino an hour and 45 min North of NY in the middle of know where had a good opening. Attendants said they would not go there to gamble unless it was a special occasion. To far away and we know consumers will not stray far from closer venues (look at ASCA article in IBD today)

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/Regional-Casinos-Shine-While-ibd-15377998.html?.v=1

They could not sell off assets in past because Bids too low so no other way to raise capital other than flooding the mkt with more shares. If you can’t see the logic then you yourself should get out of the mkt and go gamble away your savings at the casino. You’ll save the commission and they may even comp you a room. After all they have tons of vacant inventory. 50/50 chance.

Friday, May 15, 2009

LVS Macau IPO NOT WHAT YOU THINK!!!

LVS and their decision to float their Macau assets in a HK offering because their "failed effort" to sell its hotels and casinos last month is going to be a disaster for share holders today in LVS and in the HK offering. LVS is the most indebted of all the casinos and as we saw a few days ago, MGMs offering priced over 40% lower than the closing price that day. LVS is going to try to excite investors by thinking they are getting more out of the IPO than they will. When a company spins off a unit or business thru and IPO they are not getting all the capital/cash they day it starts trading. They will sell around 20-30% of the offering and will have to keep the remaining 70%. HK lock-ups are much longer than in the U.S. so will not see the rest of it for sometime. Also, this IPO will take months not weeks to get together. HK and global equity mkts up now but in a few months? Risk for IPOs then? They were unable to sell it off last month because bids were lower than they thought, but that is what it’s going for especially with upcoming open of City of Dreams MPEL new property (more competition). Last month gaming REV in Macau down 11%, and status on travelling visas a black hole. GS raised LVS today to a $8 px tgt from $5 but they are the ones hired for the process.. DUH. We have seen a cracking the market and every company and their dog subsidiary come with secondary’s. The MGM deal was bad and this has been the hottest sector lately (MGM also not as bad off as LVS). Check out these links:

http://www.ft.com/cms/s/1/cb1a2b48-4126-11de-bdb7-00144feabdc0.html
http://www.ft.com/cms/s/1/61842e28-397d-11de-b82d-00144feabdc0.html